fishy math.

zzboots · January 21, 2006, 07:15:34 AM

Really now, I understand bad luck, but there is something wrong with the probability.

First my 6 def tank was killed by 3 range str acid spitter.
My 6 def mutant was killed by 5 str acid spitter.
My 3 def firefox was killed by 2 range str tank.
My 5 def commander was killed by 2 range str tank.
(and one more thing died with defense of a +1 advantage)

Add the percentage of these things occurring all in same game.
.1 * . 33 * .33 * Â .033 * .33 = .000119

or Â .0119%

Is it common for someone's luck to be that bad or for someone else's to be that good?

If you don't understand probability, don't post.

But come on, it seems things are way too lopsided.

Also in a semi-related note, I was playing Ultswordsman (on a guest name) and Silencer who seemed to have all the good luck.

And after they killed everyone, ult left the game.
(not like it matters or anything will happen.)

Point is, matlu, are you sure your math is correct?

Fleur De Chanson · January 21, 2006, 07:34:46 AM

ya i was in that game too.. they did have extremely good luck! sumtimes its just like that.. nothing will go your way and other days u kill ppl with a probe... does seem a little lopsided sumtimes.

also i was last person to die in that game and when i died guest and silencer were still there. right after i died guest left. no he didnt lose connection cuz he was in the lobby right after...i think he even said gg b4 he left so was pretty obvious.

SiR gUt · January 21, 2006, 07:46:58 AM

yes yes i feel the same and song you know that too, we been in many games with this situation, and how many times have i mentioned this. Prolly like 20

zozefup · January 21, 2006, 08:31:17 AM

your probability isn't right.Â That would be the chance that all that stuff happened in a row to you.Â If you were attacked 15 times in the game by stuff with lower strength, then your chances for something to die is alot higher.

Fleur De Chanson · January 21, 2006, 08:53:27 AM

zoze what are u talking about.. it pretty much did all happen in a row.. it all happened in the same game! i dont think u read his post right....

zozefup · January 21, 2006, 09:16:23 AM

I'm not good at explaining things.Â I just mean you didn't say how many times you got hit with this stuff.Â With enough shots,Â a 3 range will eventually destroy a 6 defence tank.Â If it shot it 3 times,Â and killed it the 3rd time,Â thats a 25ish% to kill it, not 10%.

There is way higher of a chance for this to happen than .001%Â Â It would only 1 in 10000 if it happened in a row with no other attacks.

The formula he is using to calculate probablitys is only used when stuff happens consecutively.

Fleur De Chanson · January 21, 2006, 09:30:32 AM

well i dont remember how many times each of his things were hit b4 they died... i dont think it was many if any... but still tho that bad of luck all in one game is kinda dumb..

Dodger · January 21, 2006, 10:10:24 AM

Don't Acid Spitters have a range of 4 str?

Bakster · January 21, 2006, 03:26:25 PM

No.

AWS2 · January 21, 2006, 10:44:47 PM

Well...It happens like that sometimes.

OMG...AWS2 is back?

Im not sure if I am back or not, but I will make a point to play whenever I get the opprotunity. Once you get into your major in college it gets more time consuming.

Oh well, it is good to be "back." I am 2-0 so far, it is kind of exciting.

Peace peeps.

Fleur De Chanson · January 22, 2006, 12:10:23 AM

Quote from: ultswordsman on January 21, 2006, 04:20:57 PM
acctually i didnt leave silencer used aÂ electro pulse to kill myÂ real spider (lil fucker)Â Â then i ran like a scaredy cat in my ressurected tank for rest of the game

andÂ i used 1 hit to kill all the monsters above

BS!!!!! you left immediatly after u 2 killed me! i was there till the very end, i didnt leave till u and silencer did so i know what happened...silencer did not kill u, u said gg and just left giving him the pts.

Bakster · January 22, 2006, 12:11:56 AM

Welcome Back AWS2

Dodger · January 22, 2006, 12:30:43 AM

Quote from: Bakster on January 22, 2006, 12:11:56 AM
Welcome Back AWS2

!!!! ditto !!!!

ultswordsman · January 22, 2006, 12:45:12 AM

ditto my minnow on the tinnow

Silencer · January 22, 2006, 12:46:24 AM

dude i seriously dont recall this game. If we're talking about the 6-way last night...song i recall you beaming down a 10% queen so lets not whine about luck. At the end of that game i exposed his commander by killing his jeep with an alien hatchling and killed him with a cyborg. I dont know what game your referring to where ults threw the game. You guys must really love me to have a photographic memory of my games..lol.

Oh zz by the way, your showing shades of my cousin anti. He is havin about as much good luck as you. The other day i watched his mutant get killed by a hatchling then watched him get killed by a probe, it was fairly odd to say the least.